April 2, 2012, 5:00 am

Best Stock Picks 2012 Contest Q1 Update

by: The Financial Blogger    Category: Investment, Market and Risk
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2012 Best Stock Pick: Last Place is All Mine!


Each year, a few bloggers including myself participate in a friendly stock picking competition. The goal is to pick 4 stocks for the year and hope that our little portfolio will do better than everyone else’s. We can pick stocks from both the Canadian and US markets and ETFs are accepted as well. On the other hand, during the year no trades are allowed.


I have a weird feeling that history is repeating itself again this year: I’m last because of a single bad pick… Should I say “bad”? not yet. But I can’t say that it was a good move for Q1! Let’s take a look at what went well and what sucked in Q1 for my 2012 best stock picking contest:


National Bank – NA (TSE) +11.05%


The National stock has been good to me for the past 3 years. In fact, since December 2008 (when the stock was at $25), it has never stopped surging. We are now over $80 and the dividend keeps on increasing. The best part is that I think the best is yet to come for this small bank from Quebec. They have made several important moves over the last 2 years while investing massively in technology improvements.  Disclaimer: I am long NA.


5N Plus – VNP (TSE) –29.04%

During my stock picking session, I mentioned that VNP could be one of the best 2012 Canadian Stocks. The company is solid and evolves as a leader in its niche. The problem is that they might have taken a bite into something they can’t swallow. For the first time this Quarter, they have reported losses. Very poor timing is behind these losses: important acquisitions last year, economic problems in Europe and a slowdown in the solar industry due to the potential threat of a recession. I hope that the next quarter will be better, if not, I will most likely drop this stock upon their 2nd financial report. Disclaimer: I’m long VNP too.


Intel – INTC (NASDAQ) + 16.85%

INTC has been a rising star in my portfolio since I bought it back in August 2011. They show great innovative power and dominate their market like no other. Their Achilles Heel is related to their difficulties in entering the smart phone and tablet markets with their chips. The good news is that they recently gained market share in this niche as well. I’m expecting INTC to continue to soar until the end of 2012. Disclaimer: I’m long INTC as well.


Chevron – CVX (NYSE) +1.54%


CVX was my “defensive play” for this year’s contest. I’m not expecting CVX to grow like crazy but I think that a strong dividend combined with a hiking price of oil is never a bad idea in a portfolio! You can’t expect much from a big boat like CVX if not to expect a steady growth. This is exactly what I expect CVX to do. So far, if I include CVX dividend yield, the stock is doing okay but it’s lagging as compared to the stock market. Let’s hope they will post strong profits throughout the year! Disclaimer: I’m long CVX.


2012 Best Stock Pick Ranking:


I know… I’m in last place… but still, I’m in positive territory. Look at the return of the other bloggers, it’s quite impressive (click on their name to read their article):


Where Does All My Money Go?: 35.91%

Intelligent Speculator: 16.37%

Dividend Mantra: 13.71%

Wild Investor: 11.78%

My Traders Journal: 11.17%

Beating the Index: 10.87%

Million Dollar Journey: 7.84%

The Passive Income Earner: 4.77%

Dividend Growth Investor: 4.43%

The Financial Blogger: 0.10%

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