October 16, 2009, 5:00 am

The Great Depression II: Says Who, Huh ?

by: The Financial Blogger    Category: Investment, Market and Risk
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There is a concept that I appreciate in life: accountability. This is why I try to be consistent between what I say and what I do. It is not always easy, but I feel you just can’t open your mouth and say stuff just to gain the spotlight. If you want be on stage, go and become a Rock Star (and you can practice on Rock Band in the meantime 😉 ).

Unfortunately, this very same accountability seems to be missing from an important field of study in today’s society: Finance! Of course, there are laws, the SEC and other watchdogs try to make examples here and there when huge financial crimes are brought to justice. Yet who actually watches over the financial analysts, economists and, worst of all, the financial gurus and journalists?

They are not criminals, they didn’t breach any law and therefore, they are not responsible for any crimes, per se. However, they are highly responsible for the stock market crash we had last year, and the panic that ensued. A few highly reputable “specialists” recognized in economic spheres and all great American Universities were invited to every TV show in the world to say how we will go through something worst than The Great Depression. A few months ago, we were going right through the Abyss of Capitalism. Capitalism is dead; you will live poor and jobless for the rest of your lives. Who wants to buy a copy? Me, me, me!

All right, while I could argue with a series of 3 posts describing how the Canadian economy is very far from bankruptcy, I’ll just post this graph:

tsx-graph

As you can see, the Canadian market stock has recovered almost completely from the crash that started back in August 2008, only 9% off at this time. The Great Depression you say? Please take a few minutes to think about it…

What we all tend forget is that economists and financial analysts were “following the trend” and were saying that everything was all bad and that the world was about to collapse. In the meantime, Warren Buffett was injecting billions of dollars into several companies such as GE (look who’s laughing now!).

Remember, those “experts”, were the same who predicted a barrel of oil at $200 for 2009 when the market was on fire back in 2007. They were also the same ones seeing the very same barrel of oil at $15 when it dropped to $35 back in December 2008. Once again, following the trend…

Mark my words: I would not be surprised to read about the same experts (again!?!) predicting the barrel of oil at $150 in 2011 due to the economic rebirth from the BRIC! (we will actually hear more about the BRIC in a few months too… don’t worry, highly speculative investments have already started to grow again!).

As far as we can go back in history, human beings always wanted to predict the future. We had prophets, witches, storytellers, meteorologists and now, the most acclaimed visionaries of all time; financial analysts. You know what, I bet they are not any better than the old time Greek prophets… but they are surely get a better pay check!

Going back to accountability, can the Oprahs of this world invite those Apocalypse fans on stage again so they can explain what is going on in the stock markets? To explain where is The Great Depression II? When do we get to stop living on cash advance loans? And where is my food stamps?

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Comments

Interestingly on CBC yesterday there was a segment on the positive attitude forced on folks, particularly in the US. The author who was interviewed ststed that the information coming out today is that anyone who professed a negative attitude or offered contrary opinions was in jeopardy of losing their job. So the mantra became “say no bad news”. Since no one could speak of the possible downside, there was an unrealistic expectation in the market place. Eventually the market was right.

DAvid

I can’t believe the bull market back, but it is! I’m selling all my stock like crazy, but it’s undeniable restaurants traffic etc are all packed!

$734,,000/yr in compensation at goldman sachs this year anyone?

That doesn’t happen in a great depression.

[…] has its opinion on the Dow at 10,000… it may not last! -TFB shows how we are not exactly living the 2nd great depression -In general, I’m opposed to market timing except for speculative investment, here are some […]

[…] – Joe B presents The Great Depression II: Says Who, Huh ? posted at The Financial Blogger, saying, “human beings always wanted to predict the future. […]

Actually, the stock market did recover fairly quickly after Black Friday, rising back to pre-bubble rates by April, 1930. But the economy did not recover until after the U.S. entered World War II: twelve years later.

Economic recovery or no economic recovery, as long as you’re unemployed — as well over 10% of U.S. workers are, since many no longer qualify for unemployment and many others are just barely scraping by with various underpaid, no-benefits part-time gigs — you personally ARE in a Depression. Some figures estimate as many as 20% of this country’s workers are unemployed, off the unemployment rolls but without jobs, so discouraged they are no longer looking for work, or underemployed. That’s where the Great Depression II is.