January 3, 2012, 5:00 am

Best 2012 Stocks Contest

by: The Financial Blogger    Category: Investment, Market and Risk
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1-3 TFB Best Stock Picks For 2012 Contest Or The Best Demonstration That Investing Doesn’t Rhyme With Gambling!

We are at the beginning of the year and I hope you had a great Holiday Season! It’s time for me to get back to work and start the year with our traditional Best Stock Picks For 2012 Contest. So before we get to my stock picks for this year, let’s take a look back at what happened in 2011.

 

The Perfect Proof that Gambling is Not Investing

 

Since the goal of this friendly competition is to finish first and we only have 4 stocks to pick, some of us (including me!) took some important risks. These risks were not calculated as we are not investing real money into them and there is not much to lose (besides the fact that my ego hurts!).

 

So if you think that you can pick any stock for your portfolio based on what you read on a few blogs (besides what is written on The Dividend Guy Blog ;-) ) and what you see on TV, you are dead wrong. Investing is far from gambling and I have a great proof; take a look at my stock picks:

 

HUZ – 13.02%

RIM – 74.51%

POT – 19.66%

CVX + 20.28% (including dividends)

 

I actually took 3 guesses in 2011; 1 with a commodity (betting on the fact that silver will follow the price of gold), 1 with a techno stock (betting on the fact that RIM had gone through the worst and was ready to kick ass in 2011) and 1 on an eventual rumor of merger or acquisition (betting on the fact that the first hostile bid for Potash was only the beginning).

 

Well, I got it wrong 3 times out of 3 and this is why my stock picks sucked in 2011!

 

Here are the full results:

Dividend Growth Investor +15.36%

Million Dollar Journey +3.12%

Intelligent Speculator -4.90%

Money Smarts Blog -9.55%

Where Does All My Money Go -17.04%

My Traders Journal -19.00%

The Financial Blogger -21.73% (bravo!)

Wild Investor -33.34%

Beating The Index -44.08%

 

And we got beaten by 3 TFB commenters!

 

Yup, that’s right! Last year, I’ve asked you to participate in this contest and Steve Zussino (+17.83%), Robert @ The College Investor (+20.29%) and JT McGee (+34.50%) beat all of us! Here are the results from all the readers:

JTMcGee34.50%
Robert @ The College Investor20.29%
Steve Zussino17.83%
Passive Income Earner2.09%
Lionel1.88%
Craig-2.54%
101 Centavos-9.25%
Kevin @ Thousandaire.com-9.86%
Financial Cents-15.16%
Jaymus (RealizedReturns)-18.44%
SustainablePF-29.77%
Sean-37.67%
Financial Uproar-43.07%
DanP-45.78%
Moloko-47.64%
Stock Glory-52.77%
kildozer-61.81%
Millionvester-69.02%

 

Congratulation to JT McGee with a +34.50% Result! I’ll send him a $100 Amazon Gift Card!!

 

Now back to the Best Stock Picks for 2012

 

We all agreed to start the very same contest again this year with the very same rules:

4 stocks picked at the beginning of the year

Could be CAN or US

No trades allowed

Dividends count in the yield calculation

 

This year, I’ll use a different approach as I will pick stocks that I own or that I have analyzed carefully. I’m doing this for 2 reasons:

 

a)      I’m not good at guessing (obviously!)

b)      In a highly volatile environment, strong companies will perform better

 

My Top Stocks for 2012:

 

National Bank – TSE: NA

 

I know I can’t really go wrong with any Canadian bank but I think that NA will outperform its peers in 2012. One of the main reasons is that the company is almost done spending hundreds of millions in new software for its branches. We will start seeing productivity gains that will boost both commercial and individual banking results. Their recent acquisitions (Wellington West, the brokerage segment of Montrusco Bolton & HSBC) will also bring in additional income in 2012.

 

5N Plus – TSE:VNP

 

This Montreal based company is the leader in speciality metal and chemical products found in the manufacturing of solar panel, smartphones and tablets. They also produce rare earth metals such as tellurium, cadmium and zinc. In 2011, they posted record results after acquiring MCP a company way bigger than them. The stock price hasn’t followed the great results due to global economic uncertainties. Sooner or later, investors will realize that VNP should not be trading at a P/E ratio of 9!

 

INTEL – NASDAQ:INTC

 

Intel has proven its stability by showing strong financial results in 2011. With a dividend yield of 3.50% and a low P/E ratio, INTC will certainly do well in 2012. Intel is the leader in its industry and has the biggest R&D budget to make sure they stay ahead of the competition.

 

Chevron – NYSE: CVX

 

The price of oil is not slowing down in my opinion and this is why I’m coming back to the only stock that served me well in 2011! Chevron is highly stable and will continue to generate great profits in 2012. A little push on the oil barrel and we should see the stock up by another 10% this year ;-).

 

Here are the other best stock pick contestants:

Wild Investor

Million Dollar Journey

Dividend Growth Investor

My Traders Journal

Intelligent Speculator

Dividend Mantra

Passive Income Earner

Where Does All My Money Go

Beating The Index

 

Do you want to join in?

 

We had to say good bye to Mike Holman from Money Smart Blog this year and we are welcoming 2 newcomers: Dividend Mantra and Passive Income Earner. I’d also like to do the same contest with TFB readers (regardless if you have a blog or not). So if you include your 4 stock picks in the comment, I will be following your picks and the best performer will win a prize in early 2013. How about that?

 

You don’t have enough yet?

 

If you are looking for more stocks to buy in 2012, I can tell you that you will find great ideas in The Dividend Growth Index, and my 29 Dividend Stock Picks for 2012 are 2 other projects I started with my Dividend Blog. Please make sure that you do additional research before trading any of these stocks. They are not recommendations.

 

Disclaimer: I hold NA, INTC, CVX & VNP in my RRSP portfolio.

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Comments

[...] The Financial Blogger [...]

[...] The Financial Blogger: -21.73% [...]

[...] The Financial Blogger [...]

[...] TheFinancialBlogger: -21.73% [...]

[...] -4.90% Money Smarts Blog -9.55% Where Does All My Money Go -17.04% My Traders Journal -19.00% The Financial Blogger -21.73% Wild Investor -33.34% Beating The Index -44.08% The Passive Income Earner (NEW) Dividend [...]

Wow, I can’ t believe I finished third – very exclusive company.

I think all us Personal Finance Bloggers should stick to our day jobs!

This is a great example of why you should invest with ETFs or low-cost mutual funds.

I’ll join this contest! Always up for a friendly competition.

My picks

TSE: CLC
TSE: RIM
NYSE: PRGN
TSE: MFC

by: 12 minutes | January 3rd, 2012 (7:49 pm)

Here are my picks

TSE: AGU
TSE : TCK.B
TSE : RUS
NYSE : JPM

1. TEVA Pharmacueticals (TEVA)
2. Telus (T.TO)
3. Ford (F)
4. Suncor (SU.TO)

Conservative picks, but I think they will all be strong enough to make up for people missed gambles. Good luck everyone!

tfb, I’ll take the bait. Here are my picks for 2012:

NYSE:KMI
NYSE:EMR
NASDAQ:LARK
NYSE:NLY

[...] The Financial Blogger [...]

Great contest! And glad to see the strength of dividend paying companies. I am going to throw my hat in the ring, but I am going to cheat! If that disqualifies me, I understand. I agree with Steve at Canadian Personal Finance (“This is a great example of why you should invest with ETFs or low-cost mutual funds”).

1. Big dividend fan and I think their strength will continue.
ETF: DTN (0.38% ER, ~4% Yield)

2. Real Estate Investment Trust
ETF: VNQ (0.12% ER, ~4.4% Yield)

3. My “risk” play, Business Development Company Index (BDC):
ETF: BDCS (0.86% ER, ~7.5% Yield (variable))

4. Inflation / Global Tensions (Energy Commodity):
ETF: DBE (0.80% ER / 0% Yield – yikes)

I will have dividend paying stocks, Real Estate Exposure, financial/high-yield exposure, inflation and/or hedge against global tensions.

Hope to have a post on my blog within a day or two (http://followmy529.com)

Good luck everyone!

I’ll take a gamble on the financials turning around late 2012…

1. TSE: SLF – Sunlife
2. TSE: NA – National Bank
3. TSE : BMO – Bank of Montreal
4. TSE MFC – Manulife

I forgot to include my picks for 2012 – also on my blog – http://www.canadianpersonalfinance.com/best-stock-picks-for-2012-canadian-personal-finance.html

Telus (started at $57.64)
Exchange Income Corporation (EIF) (started at $25.41)
BCE (started at $43.00)
Suncor (started at $30.10)

[...] such a great resource for everyone interested in investing; the collaboration is incredible. The Financial Blogger has a yearly contest in which other bloggers develop portfolios of four stocks that they think [...]

Nice job JT! Way to earn some money!

My picks this year:
TWO
AGNC
KMP
HSP

Good luck!

If only the buyout money had been reinvested in its suitor. :P I’ll take the win any way you slice it. How can I claim my prize? ;)

Oh – I’m in for another year! Here’s my picks:

Adams Golf (ADGF)
Ford (F)
Transocean (RIG)
Darling International (DAR)

Not nearly as confident this year, but hey – it’s worth a shot. Linking from the blog to join officially!

I am banking on oil and gas as well as alcohol. My picks for 2012 are

TSX: BNE
TSX: CPG
TSX: LIQ
TSX: ALA

Best of Luck!

As part of Nelson’s Contest over at Financial Uproar I came up with 4 stocks of my own:

BRK-B
KELLYA
HAL
APPL

(all from the NYSE)

Last year’s results from several people way smarter than me are all the proof I need to stay away from stock picking with my own cash!

Here are mine:

Apple: APPL
Google: GOOG
Starbucks: SBUX
Whole Foods: WHM

This year’s mine!

Here are my picks:

aapl
pmt
cat
clmt

Here goes nothing!
I have enjoyed reading the blog

[...] 7. Best 2012 Stocks Contest @ TFB. [...]

hey JT!

I’ll send you an email soon ;-)

cheers,

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