I actually read a lot but I prefer making my own point of view.

Jarislowski for example, predicted the crash in 2006,2007,2008 then he got it right.

So if people likew him can be wrong 2 yearsd in a row, who can be right?

Cheers,

Tfb

Speaking of which whom would be your list of people you like to read/listen to?
Personally I read a lot on the canadian blogs (canadian capitalist, million $ journey, you recently etc.
But I also enjoy listening to Marc Faber, Garry Shilling, Jim Rogers, Peter Schiff sometimes. I would say one of the best minds out there is Marc Faber, with his swiss accent describing things I love it Also Ron Paul talks a lot of sense too bad nobody is listening. Roubini is also OK.

There are some very successful portfolio manager that were saying it was going to get ugly in 2006, than in 2007 and they finally were right in 2008 (even though their funds didn’t do better than anybody even if “they knew”).

Right now, you will read a lot more articles about the end of the world than anything else. Just keep in mind that these are written by the same people that were saying that the oil barrel would jump at $200 2 years ago ;-0

Regarding the market timing I agree it’s impossible to find the absolut bottom. However from November ongoing I listen and read and read and there are a lot of voices saying things will get uglier before they get better. And that we might see a much lower level of the S&P 500 in US. That is the indicator I am following for this purpose. If it reaches a low enough level (like 5-600) then I would feel ok to jump in with no regrets. Even if it keeps dropping so be it. If we end up with the market at 300 for example well… tough luck. Things will be really bad then and we would have to ride this one out.
The main idea was to try to pick a low enough “bottom” one feels comfortable and join the party. For me that would be around 5-600 for the S&P.

Moving away from that I like more and more the dividend idea. And getting the passive income from that. So I was doing a lot of reading on some smarter than me peoples’ blogs for that That is not easy either, as dividends are slashed in these times left and right. So welcome in the wonderful world of investing in troubled times which supposedely are the best of times for people deploying capital

As for market timing, if you wait until you get “the bottom” you will probably miss it anyway. You saw what happened between November and January… markets went up 10% to 15% and you still waited. You were right this time but what if it would have jumped by 25%? What is your trigger? Almost impossible to determine. As for the media, they wake up when the market get 40% back

If you have to invest for your retirement, today, a year ago or next year won’t matter in your overall return as this is definitely not the last drop in the market you will see in the next 30 years

It would seem to make sense to use eachothers business and mortgage portfolios as a natural hedge. I think there should be some incentive or revenue neutral incentive/penalty for banks in AB and southern ON to swap eachothers portfolios as a partial revenue stream hedge.

My main point with market timing was not to have spectacular gains (or benefit from that) from the bear market rallies – even though it would be nice but I don’t even consider that
The whole idea is: say you are just starting up (I am 30 now) now and you have some money to deploy in the market for the next 20-30 years. Buy now and never sell kind of thing. Wouldn’t it be nice to get in at the bottom? Of course it would problem is nobody knows where the bottom is or will be.
However from what is going on around us right now and from what I keep reading and listening and using my own brain too all this tells me the markets can still go down. The consensus among bears is around 500-600 for the S&P 500 in US for example. I was actually losing faith in this prediction in the past 2-3 months as we’ve seen that rally from November lows to January. But look now how it goes down.
So I’d rather wait some more for my larger investement. Could we see a huge drop like in 1929… who knows and see the S&P at 300? Maybe.
Anyway my gut for now tells me to wait some more and risk going down from a 500 level rather than a 700 level Just an example.

For the bond part however anytime is a good time to start assuming you don’t generally lose money in bonds. However I am not sure how that ETF will work exactly as they roll over the bonds after 5 years. I think they buy the bond and hold it till maturity no? Because if the bond prices go down and it’s time for the ETF to sell them because of its laddered structure you might end up losing money on it no?

About market timing i am not a big fan of market timing, things can always go lower but the fastest gains are made over a couple of days during a bear market. Depending on ones situation, either option makes sense. i think for the long hold there is great amount of value in the market, but there is as always downside potential. it is harder to make up losses, so some people would rather wait till markets turn around, they would rather reduce losses over quick gains.
I personally bought somethings early February and am not down about 20%.

Corporate bonds are very attractive right now, the spreads are fairly high and if you want to purchase some AAA and AA bonds you can get very good yields on them.

I took a look at the calymore fund and majority of the holdings are financials over 50%, look at the companies if you comfortable with holding them than it looks good.

I am new new to the investing world. So far what I have learnt was that it’s a good idea to keep bonds for example inside your registered accounts because of the way income from bonds is taxed in a taxable account.
I also look at the market now and I am a little scared to jump in right now. This would be my entry point in the market and from what I am reading based on what is going on things can still deteriorate further. I know market timing is not recommended but hey common sense tells me why not wait a little more before you commit. Entering the market for the long run at its lowest in so many years might be a good call no?
But this does not solve the problem of what to do with the TFSA account as that was my main concern now. I am saving my powder for now but I earn close to nothing inside my ING account, 2.3%.
So I said to myself how about I move into some corporate bonds. The one I found and like is CBO-T, the newly claymore etf. http://www.claymoreinvestments.ca/etf/fund/cbo/holdings
If you look at its holdings it contains a lot of companies so I would say the risk is small for default no?
And from what I’ve read the corporate bond world right now should be an attractive place to be. Good companies.
I would hope the returns there will be better than a regular GIC…
Any thoughts on this?

thanks